A team of technical experts has given two types of predictions about the direction of corona infection in the country. Both predictions suggest that the rate of infection may decrease in early September.
The four-member team of technical experts is assisting the Public Health Advisory Committee of the Department of Health in analyzing the data. The forecast given by the team is health
The department has been using it since last April. They gave the latest forecast on June 23.
There is a difference in the number of patients and deaths in the two predictions based on two different methods. According to the first forecast, the infection situation is now nearing its final stage. The infection situation is expected to be in its final stages by the end of July. By the end of August, the number of identified patients could drop to 270,000. More than three and a half thousand people may die.
The second forecast says the final stages of the transition could begin in mid-July. By the end of August, the number of identified patients could drop to 4 lakh 39 thousand. About six thousand people may die.
The issue of forecast also came up in a discussion program titled 'Corona in Bangladesh: Six-Month Observations' organized by Bangladesh Health Reporters Forum on Friday.
There, Director General of the Department of Health, Professor Abul Kalam Azad, referring to the first forecast data, said that the infection situation in the country will stabilize in a few days. If strict measures are not taken during the holy Eid-ul-Azha, the infection may increase later. Analysis of data from various laboratories and the Institute of Pathology, Disease Control and Research (IEDCR) has shown that the rate of corona infection in the country is 1.5%.
The rate of infection or effective reproduction rate (RT) is how many people are infected through a corona patient. Having more than RT1 means the infection is at a dangerous stage. The Department of Health provided information on the first forecast but did not mention the second. No explanation was received from anyone in the department as to why it was not mentioned.
Shafiun Shimul, a member of the technical expert team and a lecturer in the Department of Health Economics at Dhaka University, told Prothom Alo: "There is a big difference between the two forecasts. Department of Health officials use the prediction of relatively fewer deaths and fewer infections.
Members of the technical team say they are not getting the quality information and data they need for projections or forecasting. On the other hand some conditions are projected.
As the conditions change, the forecast does not match. The team includes Syed Abdul Hamid, a teacher at the same institute at Dhaka University, Abu Jamil Faisal, a member of the Department of Health's Public Health Advisory Committee, and Mofakkar Hossain, a teacher at the University of Toronto in Canada.
One model for predicting the infection situation is SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Removed). It is mainly projected using pathological data.The other is called the time series model. Economists and data scientists use it more. The technical team gave the first launch in the SIR model and the second in the Ties series model.
However, Shafiun Shimul said in the first light, ‘I think the reality is probably somewhere in between the two projections. Earlier this month, using the SIR model, I said that the number of victims on June 30 would be 1 lakh 23 thousand.In another model I said 1 lakh 83 thousand. Now the number of victims is between two. '
Till yesterday, 1 lakh 30 thousand 464 patients have been identified in the country.
Earlier, eight experts from the health department had predicted the situation in Corona, which could affect 46,000 to 100,000 people by the end of May.Several members of the expert team said yesterday that the lockdown would continue, other factories, including garment factories, would be closed, and people would observe other hygiene rules, including wearing masks. But these conditions were not met. So the forecast did not match. It is possible to get a picture close to the real situation by analyzing the quality data.
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